Philippine nuclear energy, soon please
A year ago, in early March 2024, I joined the Philippine Nuclear Trade Mission to Canada that was organized by the Canadian Embassy in Manila. The delegation was headed by Department of Energy (DoE) Undersecretary Sharon Garin, plus Science and Technology Undersecretary Leah Buendia, Energy Regulatory Commission Chairperson Monalisa Dimalanta, and Philippine Nuclear Research Institute Deputy Director Vallerie Samson.
Private sector participants included Ronald “Suiee” Suarez, Vice-President for Corporate Communications of Aboitiz Power (AP) along with Lino Bernardo and Nicole Yazon, also of AP; Froilan Savet, Vice-President and Head of Networks of Meralco; and Sebastian Quinones, Jr. of Prime Energy. Guy Boileau, Senior Trade Commissioner of the Canadian Embassy in Manila plus Philippine consular officers in Toronto were with us all throughout.
I super-enjoyed that very educational trip. It was not the regular conference where we’d stay in one hotel all day long — instead we hopped from one meeting to another, had site visits to the McMaster University Nuclear Reactor, a big CANDU (Canada Deuterium-Uranium) mock-up reactor by Ontario Power Generation (OPG). In Toronto, we also met the officials of Bruce Power, the biggest nuclear power company in North America, among many others.
On Feb. 26 this year, the DoE released a statement, “DoE and OECD-NEA Strengthen Collaboration on Advancing the Philippine Nuclear Energy Program.” It is about the visit to the DoE of Director-General William D. Magwood IV of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD- NEA) to discuss developments in the Philippine Nuclear Energy Program (NEP). The DoE projects the integration of 1,200 megawatts (MW) of nuclear power into Philippines’ energy mix by 2032.
Energy Secretary Raphael P.M. Lotilla was quoted as saying that, “Much of our work has focused on building a strong legal and regulatory framework for nuclear energy. We have made significant progress in submitting all necessary requirements for the ratification of existing nuclear energy-related agreements, paving the way for a safe, sustainable, and responsible nuclear energy program that will secure our nation’s energy future.”
I checked the status of nuclear energy development in the world. In the accompanying table, these nuclear reactors are defined as follows: “Operable” are already connected to the grid, “Under Construction” have their first concrete already poured and a keel layed for floating plants, “Planned” have approvals and funding or commitments in place and are mostly expected to be in operation within the next 15 years, and “Proposed” are specific programs or site proposals but the timing is uncertain.
The US remains the nuclear powerhouse with a capacity of 96,952 MW, followed by France. But China will lead the world in the future with 33,165 MW under construction and 38,710 MW from planned reactors. Europe’s largest economy, Germany, had hit peak nuclear generation of 171 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2001 then started de-nuclearization as they pivoted hard towards more intermittent wind-solar energy sources with only 34.7 TWh of nuclear energy in 2022 and 6.7 TWh in 2023 (see Table).
Taiwan is phasing out its nuclear power and has only one remaining 932-MW operable plant. In contrast, Saudi Arabia and Iran have proposed nuclear plants with 2,900 MW and 5,200 MW respectively.
One company in the Philippines that is very enthusiastic about integrating nuclear power into the mix is Meralco, through its subsidiary Meralco Power Gen (MGEN). I asked Emmanuel V. Rubio, President and CEO of MGEN, about the preparations they are making for this task. He has an optimistic response.
“We believe that nuclear energy will play an important role in the energy mix of the Philippines as we shift towards a low carbon economy. We continue to endorse the efforts of the DoE in crafting the necessary policies to enable nuclear energy, and we likewise support the work in Congress in crafting legislation that will allow for the safe use of nuclear energy.
“At One Meralco, we are proactively working towards this future by undertaking initiatives such as the NEST (Nuclear Energy Strategic Transition) program and the FISSION (Filipino Scholars and Interns on Nuclear Engineering) program. These initiatives are designed to build our institutional readiness and cultivate local talent, ensuring that we are well-positioned to be at the forefront of nuclear energy development in the Philippines.”
If the planned 1,200 MW of nuclear power comes online, can the transmission system handle it given the huge entry of intermittent renewables wind-solar in the grid? I asked Cynthia Alabanza, spokesperson and Head of Corporate Communications and Public Affairs of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP). She gave a practical response.
“NGCP has two major projects which will be completed by 2026 and 2027. Assuming no further major generation development will be built and commissioned in the Bataan area before 2032, and assuming further that the 1,200 MW nuclear target will be located in the Bataan area, then the existing facilities by 2027 will be adequate for that. Until the details of the project (location and capacity) are determined, and a System Impact Study (SIS) is issued for said project, everything remains speculative. NGCP cannot overemphasize the importance of collaborative and holistic planning when it comes to energy security.”
If oil-gas powerhouses Iran, Saudi, and the United Arab Emirates are setting up or planning more nuclear plants, the Philippines, which is an oil-gas-coal importer, should have big nuclear plants too. In 2023, the Philippines’ total power generation (from coal, gas, geothermal, hydro, etc.) was 119 TWh. That is equivalent to the nuclear generation of Japan in 1983, South Korea in 2002, and China in 2013.
The non-commissioning of the Westinghouse-built Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) in 1986 was one of the single biggest mistakes of the Cory Aquino administration. If it had been allowed to operate, and with an average capacity factor of 85%, it could have generated an average of 4.6 TWh/year. This is larger than the combined generation of wind and solar of 3.8 TWh in 2023.
The BNPP was a “classmate” of nuclear plants built by Westinghouse in many countries, including Brazil’s Angra 1 plant (609 MW, commissioned in 1982); Slovenia’s Krisko plant (688 MW, commissioned in 1983); Spain’s Asco plant (995 MW, commissioned in 1984); and South Korea’s Hanbit 1 and Hanbit 2 (995 MW and 988 MW, respectively, both commissioned in 1986). They all were started to be built by Westinghouse in the 1970s, all experienced cost escalations when construction started, all were commissioned in the 1980s, and all are operating until now. And all are safe and have had no accidents.
Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the president of Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. Research Consultancy Services, and Minimal Government Thinkers. He is an international fellow of the Tholos Foundation.
