AI robots are coming, and they’ll be made in Asia

OVER the past year, I’ve noticed an overwhelming theme emerge when Asian tech leaders look at what comes next for artificial intelligence (AI). There has been a marked desire to move beyond chatbots and software, and into the physical realm.

We’ll start to see much more AI-enabled hardware and robotics — and it will be coming from Asia.

The experience I’ve had tuning in to many executive chats and tech conferences could best be summed by Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang’s proclamation in Taipei in June. “The next wave of AI is physical AI,” he said. “The era of robotics has arrived.”

Historically, a lot of coverage of robot-human interactions in Asia have been filled with futuristic techno-orientalist tropes that often fail to reflect the reality. But there are factors that make the region uniquely primed to propel this next leap forward in integrating AI into the physical world. While the US is the leader in AI advances — and the software and internet revolution emanated from Silicon Valley — Asian tech giants have traditionally been very good at the hardware side of things.

Citigroup, Inc. projects that there would be 1.3 billion AI robots globally by 2035 and 4 billion by 2050, doing everything from household chores to delivering parcels. A lot of the progress will come from China, which accounts for 78% of all robotics patents over the last two decades, the Citi analysts said. Japan and South Korea make up 7% and 5%, respectively, while the US contributes just 3%. This dominance in Asian robotics remained just as strong when the sheer quantity of patents was weighed through a quality-assessment measure.

Moreover, robotics is an extremely expensive and difficult process. But advancing in this sector has emerged as part of China’s top-down priorities for its tech ecosystem, meaning government subsidies in research and development, and other support give it an edge.

There are other societal factors that suggest an embrace of AI robotics makes sense. Researchers have found Japan is poised to be a global leader in deploying technologies that adopt automation, as it confronts an aging population and shrinking workforce. AI-driven software coupled with hardware are being developed and implemented across all types of work, including white and blue collar, agriculture and services. While many US industries have been gripped by fears of robots taking away livelihoods, in Asia, there has been a tendency to welcome automation due to a people shortage.

This is already playing out, although on a small scale, in several creative ways. A Shenzhen startup is using an AI robot to help cook meals. A tool unveiled by Japan’s Fujitsu Ltd. in October teaches Noh, a performance art dating back to the 14th century that is under pressure as there are fewer people who know the techniques to carry on the tradition. Not to mention the countless industrial robots.

While the region may currently be behind the US when it comes to AI now, Asian tech firms have shown great success in finding practical, market applications for technology developed elsewhere. Japanese tech entrepreneurs, especially, have been very good at this. Sony Group Corp. perfected the consumer radio after taking transistor technology invented in the US. (Sony also unveiled the first consumer robot to the mass market in 1999: the beloved Aibo dog.)

There’s been a tendency to overhype the role and value of robots in Asian societies, especially in Western reporting, when the reality is much more nuanced. I’ve yet to meet a real person in Japan who ties Shinto animism beliefs into the embrace of robots. And mounting research suggests that eldercare robotic experiments have not been worth the cost and end up causing more work for caregivers (and that perhaps better immigration policies to address labor crunches would be a more worthwhile solution). Several high-profile robotic ventures launched in recent years have been curtailed.

But AI could serve as a catalyst, especially as investors and company leaders increasingly search for practical and real-world applications for the technology that go beyond just engaging chatbots. Softbank Group Corp. Founder Masayoshi Son said in Tokyo last month that he is “passionate about AI robotics,” stating that like his favorite cartoon, Astro Boy, “you can’t just have the muscle, you have to have intelligence.”

I remain skeptical that we will see the rise of AI robots in the new year, but I have no doubt they’re coming, and that they will likely be coming from Asia.

BLOOMBERG OPINION