From uncertainty to opportunity: Key trends shaping the 2025 office market

By Kevin Jara and Kath Taburada

The Metro Manila office market navigated a challenging landscape in 2024, marked by high vacancy rates, shifting occupier strategies, and global economic uncertainties. As 2025 begins, key trends are emerging that could redefine demand dynamics, presenting both challenges and opportunities for occupiers and landlords alike.

US ELECTION SLOWS DOWN OFFICE LEASING IN Q4 2024Metro Manila’s office market experienced a decline in transaction activity in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024, with total demand dropping to 143,000 square meters (sq.m.) from 192,000 sq.m. in the previous quarter. Colliers’ historical data show that demand typically dips by 30% during US election periods as occupiers delay leasing decisions, but rebounds by 40% in the following months as market confidence stabilizes.

Despite the temporary dip, expansions remained strong, signaling businesses’ confidence in the country. In 2024, expansions accounted for 56% of known transaction motivations, while 44% were relocations — primarily driven by cost-efficiency strategies and flight-to-quality movements. Traditional firms continued to be the primary demand driver, followed by third-party outsourcing (3PO) firms and shared services providers. Government agencies played a key role in traditional office space demand, accounting for 27% of total take-up.

The submarket dynamics in Metro Manila highlight the resilience of key business districts. Among Metro Manila’s submarkets, the Bay Area remained the most active, capturing 23% of total transactions, followed by Fort Bonifacio (18%) and Quezon City (17%). Key leasing transactions in the Bay Area were from government offices, while major sign-ups from multinational firms were seen in Fort Bonifacio, and expansions of IT-BPM firms were recorded in Quezon City.

POGO EXODUS’ IMPACT TO LINGER IN 2025The lingering effects of the Philippine Offshore Gaming Operator (POGO) exodus weighed on the market, pushing Metro Manila into its first negative net take-up territory since 2021. In 2024, POGOs vacated 260,000 sq.m., and without the ban, net take-up could have remained positive at 215,000 sq.m.

The impact is most pronounced in POGO-exposed submarkets, particularly the Bay Area, Alabang, and Makati Fringe, where vacancy rates remain elevated. With the government’s continued crackdown on illegal POGOs, surrenders from these spaces will likely drive further increases in vacancy rates.

Despite these challenges, demand from other sectors has helped cushion the impact, with traditional firms, 3POs, and government agencies absorbing space. While the effects of the POGO exit will linger, ongoing transactions have prevented a worst-case scenario.

PROVINCIAL DEMAND REMAINS STRONG, DIVERSIFYING MARKET OPPORTUNITIESBeyond Metro Manila, provincial office markets saw sustained demand, particularly from outsourcing firms. Cebu and Pampanga remained the top locations for provincial transactions, though Cebu recorded a year-on-year drop in volume — signaling possible market saturation of third-party outsourcing firms.

However, emerging office destinations such as Davao, Bacolod, Batangas, and Bohol saw a surge in demand, averaging a threefold increase in year-on-year transaction volume. Notably, some BPO players adapted to supply gaps by securing non-traditional spaces, such as Sagility’s lease within the redeveloped Tagbilaran Airport project. Additionally, newly built office buildings accounted for 60% of leasing activity, highlighting the need for high-quality, BPO-grade office spaces.

To capitalize on this trend, developers are encouraged to explore expansion in cities with limited office supply. Major developers such as Robinsons Land and Megaworld are already pivoting toward provincial growth with key projects in Iloilo, Bacolod, Bulacan, Davao, and Dumaguete. As more firms consider decentralizing operations, having high-quality office spaces will be critical in ensuring sustainable provincial market growth and attracting long-term occupiers.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2025The office market is expected to remain tenant-leaning in 2025, as high vacancy rates persist due to non-renewals and carryovers from delayed construction of office buildings. However, early indicators from our Q1 2025 data suggest renewed leasing activity — particularly from 3PO firms in both Metro Manila and provincial locations — signaling a rebound in office demand.

Global economic conditions could further bolster the Philippines’ office market. With rising costs in key international markets, outsourcing remains a cost-effective strategy for multinational companies. The recent US tariff policies, as highlighted in our previous write-up, are expected to place additional cost pressures on US firms, making offshore solutions in the Philippines even more attractive. This trend could drive increased demand for office space, particularly from 3POs and shared services firms looking to expand their footprint in cost-efficient locations.

The passage of the CREATE MORE Act — particularly its provision allowing Registered Business Enterprises (RBEs) to implement up to 50% work-from-home (WFH) arrangements—will also play a crucial role in shaping office demand. In the short term, this policy may have varied effects: some firms may rationalize their office footprint, while others may see little to no change in their space needs as they are already compliant with the onsite requirement. However, in the long term, the clarity on hybrid work policies provides occupiers with a stable regulatory framework — reducing uncertainty and allowing companies to make more confident real estate decisions.

For tenants, current market conditions present an opportunity to secure favorable deals, while landlords must enhance their offerings to remain competitive. Landlords in the Bay Area, Alabang, and Makati Fringe — particularly those with aging buildings and spaces previously occupied by POGOs — will need to implement refurbishments, offer tenant improvement allowances, and introduce flexible lease structures to attract occupiers and mitigate vacancy risks.

Kevin Jara is director of tenant representation at Colliers Philippines, while Kath Taburada is senior market analyst for tenant representation at the same firm.