Palay output forecast for 2024 cut after storms

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A farmer threshes newly harvested palay grains at a ricefield in Mogpog, Marinduque in central Philippines, March 22, 2016. — REUTERS

By Adrian H. Halili, Reporter

THE Department of Agriculture (DA) said on Tuesday that it downgraded its palay (unmilled rice) production forecast for this year due to the spate of tropical cyclones that hit the country late in the year.

“The latest estimate is only 19.3 million (metric tons), and it may fall further because of the typhoons,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said on the sidelines of the KADIWA ng Pangulo Expo.

The new 2024 forecast represents a downgrade from the 19.41 million metric tons (MMT) estimate the DA issued in October and the 20.1 MMT from August.

If the projection is borne out, output would fall 3.63% from the 20.06 MMT in actual production in 2023, and the lowest level since the 19.29 MMT posted in 2020.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, palay production for the third quarter dropped 12.4% to 3.33 MMT.

Six consecutive typhoons traversed the Philippines in recent weeks, damaging major rice, corn and vegetable production areas in eastern and northern Luzon.

The DA estimates losses of about P10 billion from the recent storms.

The Philippines is also expected to experience La Niña until early 2025, increasing the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity.

The government weather service, known as PAGASA, cited a 71% likelihood of La Niña setting in between November and January, lasting until the first quarter of next year.

Mr. Laurel added that supply of rice will be boosted by imports due to arrive soon.

“Medyo maraming bigas. (We have quite a lot of). The estimate is that we will hit 4.5 MMT in imports this year,” Mr. Laurel said.

He added that rice imports amounted to 4.1 MMT as of last week, while the wet-season harvest is also underway.

Imports have surpassed the 3.61 MMT reported in 2023, according to the Bureau of Plant Industry.

In June, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed Executive Order No. 62, which reduced tariffs on imported rice to 15% from 35% until 2028, as a measure to contain inflation.

The US Department of Agriculture said it expects the Philippines to import about 5 MMT this year. It also raised its rice import forecast for 2025 to 5.1 MMT, citing increased consumption.

The DA is aiming for a year-end national rice inventory of 3.83 MMT, despite the projected drop in rice production. This is equivalent to about 100 days’ demand.