Analysts sense political insecurity as Marcos graces Sunday’s coalition rally

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

THE MARCOS administration’s efforts to consolidate support at the local level indicate increasing insecurity within the ruling coalition, which has been threatened by talks of unrest in the military amid tensions with political elites from the country’s south, certain political analysts said on Thursday.

The National Government will hold a grand rally with the theme “Bagong Pilipinas” (New Philippines) at a major grandstand in the capital Manila on Sunday, and expected guests include President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. and other government officials.

The kick-off rally, which has been endorsed by various government agencies, followed a year that saw major internal rumblings against the backdrop of rising commodity prices, which have significantly lessened the administration’s popularity among its most loyal supporters.

“It’s a show of strength to bolster continued support to the regime in the face of breakaway elements from the Unity coalition,” Hansley A. Juliano, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“It’s an attempt to overawe potential defectors to Duterte’s camp,” he said. “It does help that the Marcos loyalists tend to be a bit more consistent ideologically than the allies of former president Rodrigo R. Duterte.”

The gap between Mr. Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio, his running mate in the 2022 elections, widened last year following moves by House lawmakers to strip the latter of her confidential and intelligence funds under the 2024 national budget amid widespread public criticism.

In an apparent response, Mr. Duterte, the former president, had accused House Speaker Martin G. Romualdez, a first cousin to Mr. Marcos, and other lawmakers of corruption and called on the public to stop paying taxes.

Tensions between Mr. Romualdez and the Dutertes of the southern Philippine city of Davao had been apparent after the House lawmakers removed former president and now Pampanga lawmaker Gloria M. Arroyo in May from her senior deputy speakership post and then again in November as a deputy speaker.

Mr. Marcos has veered away from some of the key policies of the Duterte administration, like standing up to Beijing amid its aggression in the South China Sea and vowing to shift the focus of the government’s anti-narcotics campaign to rehabilitation from a deadly approach.

“This event is either a re-assertion of ‘Unity’ or a redirection towards a narrative of ‘Bagong Pilipinas’ that need not be based upon a Marcos-Duterte Uniteam,” said Anthony Lawrence Borja, a political science professor at De La Salle University.

Aside from the personality-driven tensions between members of the “Marcos-Romualdez and Duterte factions,” he also cited recent confrontations between the Senate and the House of Representatives on the push to amend the 1987 Constitution.

Efforts to amend the country’s 36-year-old Charter — written after a popular street uprising in 1986 that topped the dictatorial regime of Mr. Marcos’ late father — have been emboldened by a so-called “people’s initiative,” a move tainted by allegations of bribery that would allow both houses of Congress to act as a Constituent Assembly and vote jointly.

On Wednesday, the 24-member Senate issued a strongly worded statement against the move, saying it is “ridiculous” for the Senate to have a “dispensable and diluted role” in the Charter change (“Cha-cha”) push.

Mr. Marcos, 66, recently said he is in favor of amending the economic as well as the political provisions of the Charter. The economic aspects should be prioritized over the political provisions so as not to derail the “Cha-cha” push, he noted in a television interview.

“I won’t be surprised if this kick off rally becomes an impromptu roadshow of the Charter Change agenda,” Mr. Juliano said, “with the crowds being promised so many things to support the initiatives of the allies.”

An anti- “Cha-cha” rally, which is expected to be attended by thousands, will also be held on Sunday in Davao City, the political bailiwick of the former president and his family.

“What we are witnessing is a show of force or numbers from both sides,” Jan Robert Go, who teaches political science at the University of the Philippines, said via Messenger chat.

“On the one hand, you have the Marcoses proclaiming a ‘new’ Philippines, a banner of the administration’s vision,” he explained. “On the other hand, you have a rally that denounces the charter change efforts, primarily attributed to the House of Representatives led by the President’s cousin.”

“It is not a coincidence that the anti-chacha rally will be held in Davao,” he added.

Mr. Go said the Duterte camp might be redefining or recreating another center of political power, which is Davao City, where the former president had been known for his brutal campaign against alleged criminals.

The administration-led Sunday rally at the Quirino Grandstand in Manila would likely serve a “consolidation of factions heralding a post-Unity period” amid the rise of a supposed new opposition,” Mr. Borja said.

“It can even end up as a poorly attended rally given sustained political inaction among many Filipinos.”

Inflation remains a key risk to the Philippines’ economic growth, and a recent survey by Octa Research showed that most Filipinos view it as a top concern.

Headline inflation hit a 14-year high of 8.7% year on year in the first month of 2023. It declined to 3.9% in December, but the full-year average for 2023 hit 6.0%, breaching the central bank’s 2%-4% target.

Earlier this month, the Trade department said it had permitted manufacturers of basic necessities and prime commodities to reduce the size or weight of their products to cope with rising costs of production.

“The rally will in no way help Filipinos cope with the many challenges they face on a daily basis,” policy analyst Michael Henry Yusingco said via Messenger chat.

“This rally is an exercise of pure self-indulgence — just to make the administration happy about itself at the expense of taxpayers.”