New Year Outlook
The Philippines’ economic performance in 2023 was decent, says award winning Philippine National Bank economist Alvin Arogo, considering waning revenge spending, persistently high inflation, and the negative impact of elevated interest rates. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth likely eased to 5.4% in 2023 from 7.6% in 2022, primarily driven by the rise in consumer prices and sharp increase in interest rates over the past two years.
Alvin forecasts that economic conditions will be slightly better in 2024, with GDP growth at 5.7%. Inflation is expected to be under control at 4.5% amid favorable initiatives from the government, such as ensuring adequate agricultural buffer stocks and the extension of the reduced tariff rates on key commodities. Consumer spending will be more robust and contribute further to the economy. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will likely cut interest rates, making it less expensive for companies to finance their capital expenditures. Consequently, capital formation will likely expand at a better rate in 2024. With the likely end of the rate hike cycle, expect the peso to remain relatively manageable and trade at a range of P54.50-57.50. Key risks, says Alvin, are the emergence of new supply shocks, the possibility of a harsher El Niño, and the escalation of tensions between the Philippines and China may dampen business and consumer confidence.
At our Christmas family reunion, IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines President Jack Madrid (married to my niece Belinda Gozon) talked passionately about the IT-BPM sector as a bright spot.
He said the industry grew to 255,000 new jobs during the pandemic, ending 2023 with 1.7 million employees. This is seen to cross the 2 million level by 2025. More than 54% of the growth will come from the countryside, such as Iloilo, Davao, Cagayan de Oro and Laoag. To continue being a golden goose of the Philippine economy, upskilling and reskilling is needed, as it is an indispensable pillar, contributing $35 billion or 8% of GDP.
Speaking of family, my brother Felipe “Henry” Gozon, chairman and CEO of GMA Network, Inc., recently celebrated his birthday with full gratefulness to the Lord. Maritess, the youngest daughter, said her dad is an enigma — a multidimensional personality yet an authentic person. A lawyer, he took the helm of GMA, known as “Popeye station,” with no business experience and yet managed to make GMA number one. He is not perfect, despite his famous saying “I may not be always right, but I am never wrong.” Son Philip said his dad is a strict chairman and CEO who demands perfection. Having him as a boss can be both intimidating and rewarding. One trait, Philip says, that stands out is his integrity. He pays particular attention to the news, making sure “walang kinikilingan, walang pinoprotektahan, walang kasinungalingan, laging totoo lamang.”
Henry takes pride in his family, and who wouldn’t? His children Annette and Philip are both lawyers with masters from Harvard Law School, and Maritess is a medical doctor from UP. All three were top in their class; when they were young, someone remarked, “they probably have brains even in their cheeks.” The grandchildren are closely following their parents’ footsteps.
This year, Henry faced a significant challenge when his wife Tessie had a health crisis. The imposing husband turned into a caring and soft-hearted one. For the first time, Henry was vulnerable and unsure of what to do. Tessie recovered, and at the party, Henry openly acknowledged that Tessie, his UP sweetheart for 11 years, is his true love. As a sister-in-law, I can attest to Tessie’s goodness, and she is truly the “perfect wife” for Henry.
Henry turned to God and read the Bible again. He started a Sunday Bible study with his family to instill love and fear of the Lord, fully surrendering to God’s will. Our Nanay Arling (Carolina Lapus Gozon) is smiling in heaven. She taught us to know that Jesus Christ is the most important as He is the Savior and the Source of Everything. Henry believes that whoever sees God’s hand in everything can leave everything in God’s hand. Maritess says the blueprint of his dad’s success is his legacy: “Do the best you can and leave the rest in God’s hands.”
Henry is stepping down as GMA CEO but remaining as chairman and adviser. Congratulations to the new CEO Jimmy Duavit and Joel Jimenez, new executive committee chair!
This Christmas, with the birth of the Lord Jesus Christ, we have received the greatest gift ever. Let us look forward to a great 2024 with God in the center of our lives.
The views expressed herein are her own and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of her office as well as FINEX.
Flor G. Tarriela was former PNB chairman and now serves as board adviser. A former undersecretary of Finance, she is lead independent director of Nickel Asia Corp., director of LTG, Inc. and FINEX. A gardener and an environmentalist she founded Flor’s Garden in Antipolo, now an events destination.
