Stalemate?

The leak of classified US intelligence information and the almost immediate arrest of a suspect, 21-year-old Air National guardsman Jack Teixeira, has triggered discussions on the impact of the unauthorized release of data on the security and intelligence establishment of the US.

Fears have been expressed about the volume of information about US military capabilities and what the US knows about secrets even of allies like the UK, Germany and South Korea. At this point, there is certainly a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth at the Pentagon and, of course, the White House on the custody of sensitive information. The fallout from this intelligence lapse continues as even the Democratic allies of President Joe Biden would like to ask questions like how did Teixeira, apparently a junior level staffer, have access to such sensitive information he shared in social media; which staff are entitled to have access to sensitive information; and are there background checks conducted of potential hires?

One cause for concern is the assessment of the US of the status and, more important, the direction the Ukraine war is taking. No doubt, the war has affected the global economy, especially with respect to oil and commodity prices and the worldwide inflation both have caused.

On the military front, the classified US information revealed that the war could be headed for a stalemate which is in stark contrast to earlier announcements that the Russian military was well on its way to being roundly beaten. It does appear that on the ground the Russian military has already been defeated and continues to be humiliated because of poor leadership, and lack of discipline and commitment of troops especially Russian convicts and other forced conscripts. There is also the well-known conflict between the Russian defense establishment and the Wagner mercenary group headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin who tries to upstage Russian military officials at every turn. Prigozhin had bragged a few months ago that if he had taken over the lead role in the war against Ukraine, Wagner would have overrun half of the country by then. Recent reports show that in a blog, Prigozhin however said on April 16 that “the ideal option” would be the end of the war. Considering that Prigozhin, whose para-military group is supported by the Kremlin (although there are rumors of a fall out), is purportedly a close ally and crony of Putin, the war advocate could have just been floating a position that Putin cannot publicly articulate. Or Prigozhin is simply playing his role of maverick to the hilt.

Whatever Prigozhin’s motives, the comment tends to validate the frustration felt by everyone involved in the war which has dragged on for more than a year and could very well slide into 2024. Such an eventuality could cause complications for the Democrats during the presidential elections.

The war has stretched the munitions resources and assets of Ukraine which is dependent on the US and NATO countries and possibly other countries, if one were to believe the leaked intelligence report.

(Even Taiwan’s air defense systems were, noted by the US military, very vulnerable to a Chinese air attack, according to the intelligence reports. As expected, the Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense took exception to a report by foreign parties.)

Much of the American frustration is engendered by it carrying the major load of the war effort which has political costs. In the first week of March, the US continued to exert pressure on its European allies to assume more of the collective burden and increase allies’ defense spending.

With or without the US intelligence report, the military of most countries, including Russia and its cohorts, are very much aware that Ukraine is running out of war supplies as Russia, too, is hard pressed to sustain its “special operations” in Ukraine.

In a March 3 report, writers Phil McCausland and Dan De Luce state that, in an obvious response to US pressure, Estonia proposed that Europe increase 155-millimeter artillery shell production by seven times, moving manufacturing capacity from 240,000 to 300,000 shells per year to up to 2.1 million shells annually. The US is actively campaigning with its allies to increase the latter’s defense spending, hoping that its own financial burdens will be alleviated. Even neighboring Canada was requested by President Biden in a recent visit to increase Canada’s defense spending.

The McCausland and De Luce report adds that the estimated cost of the proposal would be nearly $4.25 billion for the joint acquisition effort that would be shared by the European Union member states. If fulfilled, Europe would produce Ukraine’s ammunition needs in six months or in the summer, rather than the four years it would take at current production. With arms procurement and manufacturing a key agenda item for the Biden administration, and even as the Estonian proposal is being discussed, the US is increasing its production five-fold, according to the authors of the article.

The need to increase Ukrainian munitions is necessary and crucial as the Russians and Wagner have no qualms about sending thousands of troops to the warfront, knowing with certainty that these convicts and forced conscripts have little or no hope of coming out of the war alive.

To Ukraine, the production of shells in Europe and the US is at a crisis point, according to McCausland and De Luce. “If production remains at the same level or slightly higher, we will run out of shells,” according to Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former defense minister who now advises the Ukrainian government on arms procurement.

Should this increase in munitions supply to Ukraine materialize within the planned timeline, it could create a tremendous advantage for the embattled former member of the USSR, especially if one considers that coupled with Germany’s decision early this year to send tanks to the war in the next few months was a key turning in Europe’s commitment to the war against Russia. Modern warfare experts say the use of the German-made and other European-manufacture tanks could alter the complexion of the war in favor of Ukraine.

The US intelligence report on the possibility of a stalemate, however, remains to be a big question. US military experts predicted, in a CNN interview, that “there will be no war win for Ukraine in 2024.”

Philip Ella Juico’s areas of interest include the protection and promotion of democracy, free markets, sustainable development, social responsibility and sports as a tool for social development. He obtained his doctorate in business at De La Salle University. Dr. Juico served as secretary of Agrarian Reform during the Corazon C. Aquino administration.